Most finishers are eternal pessimists, which is appropriate considering they never know when their next order may come through the door or if they might get undercut by a cheaper coater down the road, which has been in business for only a few years.
But our recent 2024 Economic Finishing Survey appears to show an even doomier look at how this next year is shaping up for finishers and coaters.
In late 2022, I surveyed shops to ask how they thought 2023 would pan out. More than 75% of shop owners expected a 10% to 20% increase in sales in 2023 over 2022. When I asked those shops in December how 2023 fared for them, almost 42% said they saw a 10% or higher growth in sales in 2023, meaning about half hit that target as they continued to deal with the fallout from the pandemic, supply chain issues, and a slowing of some manufacturing operations.
Roughly 18% of plating and anodizing shops say their sales were flat in 2023. Looking ahead to 2024, about 48% say they expect only a 10% or less increase in sales in 2024, the largest segment of the survey indicators. About 18% say they expect a 20% increase in sales from 2023.
As you’ll read in our article in the January issue, many shops echoed the sentiment of one shop president who told me about the upcoming year: “We see it as stable with no change.”
Another shop president says, “2024 could be closer to 2021-2022 than 2023.” Another owner told me, “Uncertainty will continue, but the automotive market in the USMCA region will continue to grow.”
Other shops say they invested in their company in new lines and equipment in the past few years and expect growth.
“We are adding about 30% capacity to one line and an entirely new line to our portfolio,” one shop president says. “That line should double our sales in 2024.”
We hope the instability of the political landscape won’t cause further harm as we hold a presidential election in 2024. No one needs a few idiots in Washington D.C. — and I’m referring to both sides of the aisles and even regulators — causing even more harm to our economy.
Speaking of regulators in Washington, more than a few shops were unhappy with the U.S. Environmental survey they received in the past weeks that the agency requires them to complete as part of the “Information Collection Request for the Metal Finishing and Electroplating Industry.”
The survey has been in the works for over a year and requires to go back to 1995 to report some data. The shops were not thrilled with the scope of the survey questions, either.
"It needs to be clarified why trivalent and hexavalent chromate coatings are included," one shop owner says. "Additionally, the EPA's request for shops to measure the total surface area processed seems impractical, requiring extensive effort for a single data point. Concerns also arise about the confidentiality of this data, as the EPA appears to publish it for public access while financial information is legally protected."
"Do not try to use logic on this query," another says. "None of it makes sense. Finishers were de minimis users and should be pushing back hard on this 100-page overreaching questionnaire."
Another person told me that, unfortunately, the EPA will be forcing samples to be tested by Method 1633, which he says is "highly variable in execution between labs and not so good recovery that must be corrected using isotope dilution."
The surveys are due by March 1, giving the shops two months to answer.
Tim Pennington is Editor-in-Chief of Finishing and Coating, and has covered the industry since 2010. He has traveled extensively throughout North America visiting shops and production facilities, and meeting those who work in the industry. Tim began his career in the newspaper industry, then wound itself between the sports field with the PGA Tour and marketing and communications firms, and finally back into the publishing world in the finishing and coating sector. If you want to reach Tim, just go 
